五年后的零售，会是什么样子——CNBC与十几位零售业大咖的深入对话

在过去的几个月中，CNBC与十几位零售业的高层管理人员和领军人物进行了深入的对话。这些行业的佼佼者，不仅见证了近些年零售业波澜壮阔的变革历程，还针对未来五年零售业的走向、人工智能如何重塑客户体验，以及哪些新兴标准将引领未来零售新潮流等议题，分享了他们的独到见解。每位专业人士的洞见都充满智慧与前瞻性，为我们描绘了一幅零售业未来的壮丽蓝图。

对话的专家们预计，零售业的未来还会有更多的演变。新冠疫情引发的冲击，曾一度使零售业物流受阻，造成商品短缺；而当下在持续通胀的背景下，消费者需求的转变，又造成零售企业库存过剩。 而正是零售业面临的这些新的挑战和冲击，却加快了零售业的转型。随着2024新的一年到来，希望动荡已经过去，零售业领袖们正在为打造未来企业而寻求改变。这些变革，不仅会深刻影响着零售行业的未来走向，更将重塑整个行业的生态格局。

那么，五年后的零售业又将是一幅怎样的景象？又会呈现出哪些令人瞩目的新变化呢？以下便是他们从行业的角度，为我们描绘的五年后零售业可能的模样。这些见解虽经编辑，却仍保持了其原汁原味的思考深度与前瞻性。

In five years, what will the role of stores be and how will brick-and-mortar locations change?

Fran Horowitz, Abercrombie & Fitch CEO: The future of retail is small, efficient, omni stores, and they're located where the customer tells us. [For Abercrombie] these big, massive stores were just not productive and not efficient — the consumer was responding to a much more intimate associate experience, and then economically, they were not productive. You don't get the kind of traffic through the stores like you did in the past when there wasn't a digital option, so you have to provide a location that is financially sound, which has X amount of traffic and X amount of digital orders that come together.

Abercrombie & Fitch 首席执行官弗兰 · 霍洛维茨: 零售业的未来将是小型化、高效化、全渠道的店铺，并且店铺将开设在消费者希望看到的地方。对于阿贝克隆比公司而言，那些大型门店，从顾客体验的角度来看既不高效也不具备生产力，因为消费者希望更加亲密的购物体验；而且从经济角度看，它们也不具备生产力。当今的零售企业，不能像过去那样在没有数字化选择的情况下，通过实体店获得客流量。因此零售企业在选择门店位置时，必须经过财务测算，该位置拥有多少数量的客流量和多少数量的数字订单，二者是决定门店位置的共同要素。

Fran Horowitz, CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch Co.弗兰·霍洛维茨 Abercrombie & Fitch 公司的首席执行官。

Patrick MacLeod | WWD | Penske Media | Getty Images

Michelle Gass, Levi Strauss CEO: The role of the store needs to be much more experiential than it is today. I think consumers are going to raise the bar, and they're just going to expect that because when you can just shop and do a transaction a click away, there has to be a higher purpose for a store. It's not just about the consumer-facing aspect, but the back end of the operation becomes even more important. The store becomes a mini distribution center. Perhaps what it does is it lessens the need over time to put up the next distribution center, because you're using your store footprint as these mini fulfillment centers.

李维斯 CEO Michelle Gass : 商店的角色需要比今天更具体验性。我认为消费者会提高体验需求的门槛。在只要点击一下鼠标，就可以完成一次购物、完成一笔交易的时代，门店必须具有满足消费者更多和更高的购物目标的吸引力时，消费者才可能到实体店来购物。而做到这一点不仅仅是面向消费者的门店需要做出很多的改变，而且后端的管理也需要随之做出很大的改变，并变得比以往更加重要，在全渠道的购物环境下，实体门店变成了一个小型的配送中心。也许它的作用是随着时间的推移减少了建立下一个配送中心的需要，因为你的企业可以使用实体门店作为小型的配送中心。

Jens Grede, Skims CEO: Higher concentration [of stores] in better locations. Trends come and go, but Fifth Avenue by the park will be Fifth Avenue. It was that a hundred years ago, it will be so in another hundred years, right? So important locations are only becoming more important. I don't know where that leaves the B and C location, but I think the B and C location will struggle because they're not offering the experience. I think when people go shopping, they go to an A location or they go online, but there really is very little need for B and C locations.

Skims 首席执行官 Jens Grede: 在商店更集中、更好的位置开店。潮流来来去去，但纽约中心公园旁的第五大道就是第五大道。一百年前是这样，一百年后也是这样。所以重要的位置只会变得越来越重要。我不知道 B 和 C 的位置在哪里，但我认为 B 和 C 的位置会很困难，因为他们没有提供体验。我认为当人们去购物时，他们会去一个 A 地方或者线上，可能真的很少需要 B 地点和 C 地点。

Geoffroy van Raemdonck, Neiman Marcus Group CEO: Five years from now, there'll be even bigger what we call "retail-tainment" — when you come in the store and you have a multisensory experience that really takes you in a space that has a theme, where the brand or the retailer is expressing something that re-transports you in another world and that transport is a physical experience, not a digital experience.

尼曼首席执行官Geoffroy van Raemdonck : 5年后，我们所说的“零售娱乐”将会变得更加盛行——当你走进商店，你会有一种多感官体验，真正带你进入一个有主题的空间，品牌或零售商正在表达某种东西，将你重新带到另一个世界，而这种体验是一种实体体验，而不是数字体验。

Trina Spear, Figs CEO: Stores just acting kind of as a transactional thing in the world is going to become less and less relevant, and what's going to become more relevant is having an experiential destination for our community to come together, to meet and be connecting with not only the brand, but also each other.

Trina Spear，Figs 首席执行官: 未来世界上的商店，像以往承担的商品买卖的功能相对会越来越小；而更重要的职能是顾客体验。让社区的人们走到这里，不仅仅是和品牌建立关系，而且是人们彼此建立关系。

Trina Spear, Figs CEO, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, Oct. 18, 2021.

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images | 法新社 | 盖蒂图片社

Chris Nicholas, Sam’s Club CEO: The most expensive and most difficult piece of e-commerce is that last mile of fulfillment, and if you’re closest to the customer [with stores] and you’re willing to use all of your assets in service of e-commerce then what you get to do is you get to give the customers what they want, which is more convenience and more speed. You need to make sure that stores are great and that they’re well looked after and they’re inspirational places to shop. But there is an ‘and,’ and the ‘and’ is that they are also last-mile fulfillment nodes that allow you to serve those customers in the way they want.

Sam’s Club 首席执行官，Chris Nicholas:电子商务中最昂贵且最具挑战性的一环就是最后一公里的配送，而如果你拥有最靠近客户的商店，并愿意将你的所有资源用于服务电子商务，那么你将能够为客户提供他们想要的东西，即更多的便利和更快的速度。首先，你需要确保你的店很优秀，顾客在你的店能得到很好的服务，并成为他们购物的灵感之地。除此之外，你的店是线上购物最后一公里的配送节点，让你能够以客户想要的方式为他们服务。

Kara Trent, Under Armour’s president of Americas: Some brands have moved to super experiential, other brands have moved to super transactional. I think you’ll end up with a blend,— and I think the brands that get the blend of experience while driving commerce are the ones that will succeed. I think that does shape how brands will look at real estate and what streets and what neighborhoods are most important, and almost thinking a bit more micro than macro, right? What a consumer in New York City might need versus a city in middle America, versus how you think about the different types of retail locations, even in a massive city like New York.

Under Armour 美国总裁 Kara Trent: 一些品牌已经转向超级体验，其他品牌已经转向超级交易（这里指的应该是数字化，编译注）。我认为那些在推动商业发展的同时也推动体验提升的品牌将会取得成功。品牌这些变化，也会影响他们对商业地产的认知，如哪些街道和哪些社区更重要？对局域的思考比对广域的思考在会更多一些。我们可能会想：相对于美国中部城市，纽约市的消费者可能需要什么？即使是在像纽约这样的大城市，如何看待不同业态？不同的位置零售店？

What are the most disruptive forces in retail? And how will those shape the industry’s future?

Levi’s Gass: Technology, data, machine learning, and even AI. I get really, really excited about what this means in the operations of the business, using predictive analytics to help us forecast demand. The power of machine learning, of predictive analytics, as a retail operator is extremely powerful because it is going to help us execute at a higher level to better serve our customers.

Levi’s Gass: 技术，数据，机器学习，甚至人工智能。对这些新的技术我真的非常非常兴奋，这意味着利用预测分析模型可以帮助企业运营预测需求。机器学习、预测分析学习这些技术可以强有力的赋能我们零售商，帮助我们在更高水准上管理业务，更好地为客户服务。

Tom Ward, Walmart U.S. chief e-commerce officer: The most disruptive force is always going to be the customer demand. Wherever customers want to go is where the retail industry is going to follow and the technologies that support that — whether it’s in the front end or the back end or the supply chain.  The customer is always going to be the driving force of change, for sure. If you assume that to be true across everybody, then the technologies that are emerging that are helping retailers follow the customers’ lead most efficiently are going to be the most disruptive. So obviously things like AI are going to be important.

沃尔玛美国首席电子商务官汤姆 · 沃德: 最具颠覆性的力量永远是顾客的需求。无论消费者想去哪里，都是零售业未来的发展方向以及技术支持的方向，包括前端、后端和供应链。毫无疑问，客户永远是变革的推动力。如果你假设所有顾客都在做同一种改变，那么帮助零售商最有效地适应顾客变化的新兴技术，将是最具有颠覆性的。很显然，像人工智能这样的技术将会很重要。

Tom Ward, chief e-commerce officer for Walmart U.S./沃尔玛美国公司首席电子商务官汤姆 · 沃德。

Erin Black | CNBC

Abercrombie’s Horowitz: The biggest change that we have seen — and it’s a very important part of our business — is what I would refer to as our affiliate business. We have longstanding partnerships with affiliates [such as social media influencers] who are brand lovers and spend time selling your brand for you [online]. As the world continues to evolve on digital, anything is possible, so perhaps there’s even a transaction that takes place through them, as opposed to sending them back to our website and processing the sale, maybe it’s a dropship.

Abercrombie’s Horowitz: 我们所看到的最大变化，也是我们业务中非常重要的一部分，就是直播带货。我们与品牌爱好者(如社交媒体影响者)有着长期的合作关系，他们会花时间(在网上)为你销售你的品牌商品。随着世界在数字化上的不断发展，一切皆有可能，直播带货也许会成为一种很有效的商业模式。

Figs’ Spear: Turning physical stores into a real true hub. For many brands, this is going to be the shift, right? Where people want a place to gather and to learn, they want to be part of something bigger than themselves. Especially the younger generation, Gen Z, it can’t just be about transacting, everyone wants to believe in something bigger than themselves and be a part of something bigger than themselves and that I think is going to be the most disruptive force.

Figs’ Spear: : 将实体店变成真正的中心。对于许多品牌来说，这将是一个转变，对吗？人们想要一个聚集和学习的地方，他们想经历超越自我的体验，成为超越自我事物的一部分。特别是年轻一代，Z 世代，不能只是交易，每个人都想找到超越自我的信仰，把自己变成这个世界上更重要一部分，我认为这将是最具颠覆性的力量。

Marc Lore, former CEO of Walmart U.S. e-commerce and founder of Jet.com: Conversational commerce — I think it’s one of those things that takes time to evolve. ... In five years’ time, people will understand that that’s the future. I think we’ll be far enough along that people will be able to connect the dots to a future where the world evolves into more conversational commerce where people can use voice or text to have a conversation with a digital assistant that knows you as well as your best friend.

沃尔玛(Walmart)美国电子商务前首席执行官、 Jet.com 创始人马克·洛尔(Marc Lore) :我认为会话式商务是需要时间发展的事情之一。五年后，人们就会明白这就是未来。我认为我们已经走得够远了，人们将能够把这些点与未来联系起来，在未来，世界将演变成更多的会话商务，人们可以使用语音或文本与一个既了解你、又了解你最好朋友的数字助理进行交谈。

Mickey Drexler, former CEO of Gap and J.Crew: Social media has had enormous, enormous influence on retail. When I was growing up, you put an ad in The New York Times. You put it in Time magazine. You had maybe TV ads. Look, Gap and Old Navy were built with fantastic, creative TV ads. Now, the ads are on social media, they’re on Instagram. They’re on emails. Instagram is hugely powerful in influencing consumers. And TikTok also.

GAP 和 J.Crew 的前首席执行官 Mickey Drexler: 社交媒体已经对零售业产生了巨大的影响。我小时候，品牌商纽约时报上登广告、在《时代》杂志上登广告、在电视上等广告。盖普（Gap）和老海军（Old Navy）都是用极具创意的电视广告打造的。现在广告在社交媒体上，在 Instagram 上。在邮件里。Instagram 和TikTok在影响消费者方面非常强大。

Mickey Drexler, former CEO of J.Crew/Adam Jeffery | CNBC

Ulta CEO Dave Kimbell: It really is this blurring of digital and physical and how we don’t see those as distinct, but really integrated. ... The guest is so connected and has tools and expectations that even got elevated over the last three years. It’s really important that we’re understanding how we can leverage the assets that we have — both the physical assets, in our case, almost 1,400 stores, but also the digital tools and capabilities.

Ulta 首席执行官戴夫 · 金贝尔: 数字和实体的界限确实模糊了，我们看不到它们之间的区别，但它们确实是整合在一起的。顾客会拥有很广的连接，他们所拥有的工具和建立的期望，即使在过去三年艰难的岁月里，也有很大的提高。我们必须了解如何利用我们所拥有的资产，这一点非常重要。我们不仅拥有近1400家商店实物资产，还拥有数字工具和相关的能力。

In five years, what tech will transform retail and how? How do you see artificial intelligence and automation shaking up the industry?

Ex-Walmart exec Lore: If you’re going to take anything away from this conversation, it would be my conviction on how transformational conversational commerce is going to be. And it’s unlocked by AI and the ability to process natural language like never before. The search engine is going to be archaic. It’s going to be the cassette tape in 20 years. Younger generations are going to laugh at the idea of using a search engine, because search engines aren’t that intelligent.

前沃尔玛高管Lore: 如果你想从这次谈话中学到什么，那就是我对会话式商务将引发行业变革的信念。会话式商务被人工智能和前所未有的自然语言处理能力所解锁。搜索引擎将会过时。这将是20年后的磁带。年轻一代会嘲笑使用搜索引擎的想法，因为搜索引擎没有那么聪明。

Marc Lore, former CEO of Walmart e-commerce. 马克 · 洛尔，沃尔玛电子商务前首席执行官。

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Neiman’s van Raemdonck: Right now if you look at a product, you have to try it on to know if it’s your size, if it fits, and I think there’s so many technologies that are going to be able to show you the product in 3-D to see how it would fit on you and if it’s the right fit. There’s so many ways that companies will be able to interact with you, recognizing you and anticipating what you may want. There’s so much friction in helping the customer buy the product that is right for them, and technology is going to remove a lot of that, and I think we’re going to see the return rate go down and customer satisfaction go up.

Neiman’s van Raemdonck: 现在，如果你看一个产品，你必须试穿一下，看看它是否适合你的尺寸。对于试穿，我认为有很多基于3D的技术可以用于展示产品，看看它是否适合你，是否正合适。公司可以通过很多方式与你互动，识别你，预测你想要什么。在帮助客户购买适合他们的产品时，会有很多摩擦，技术会消除很多摩擦，我认为我们将会看到退货率下降，客户满意度上升。

Levi’s Gass: If you think about the technology today, broadly speaking, a lot of what you might see in the personalization is, okay, if you’re an avid buyer of [Levi’s] 501s [jeans], you might get a recommendation on the next exciting wash of a 501, or something similar. But I think where the technology is going to go is it’s going to be able to leap into something like, to go from you’re a 501 shopper to this is going to be the perfect denim skirt for you and make bolder leaps, but do it in a way that’s informed based on your shopping history and who you are ... and by the way, this doesn’t mean that this is just all being served up in a digital world. I think the most powerful and exciting way this will be served up is when it’s with the stylists, because if you’re spending time with the stylist, they’re getting to know you, they know your purchase history — bringing that all together, it’s kind of the art and the science.

Levi’s Gass: 如果你考虑一下当今的技术，广义地说，你可能会在个性化设计中看到很多东西。如果你是 Levi’s 501(牛仔裤)的狂热买家，你可能会得到关于下一款令人兴奋的501(牛仔裤)的推荐，或者类似的东西。但是我认为技术的发展方向是能够跳跃到，从推荐一个501牛仔裤，到推荐一个完美的牛仔裙，或者更大胆的跳跃。但是所做的这一切都要基于你的购物历史和你是谁的方式去做。这并不意味着这只是一个数字世界的服务。我认为最有力也最令人兴奋的方式就是和造型师一起服务，因为如果你和造型师呆在一起，他们会了解你，了解你的购买历史，把这些结合在一起，就是一种艺术和科学。

Figs’ Spear: AI is going to be super helpful in terms of, I need this style, I need this size, I need what will fit best on me. AI is going to be really transformative as it relates to fit and people getting what they need very quickly, and getting support and answers very quickly, whether that’s online or in stores. How does it create a more personalized experience around product discovery, around face recognition? We know you, you’ve been here before, we know what you like, what’s going to work best with where you work, what you do, your body type, your style. And so that’s going to be incredibly helpful. I think long term, it will be game-changing.

Figs’ Spear: 人工智能将是非常有帮助的，他将为消费者推荐服装的风格、尺寸，什么最适合消费者。人工智能将会是真正的变革，因为它帮助人们快速的找到并得到适和他们的所需要的东西，无论是线上还是在实体店，都并能够得到快速的支持和回复。它如何创造更个性化的体验，为你推荐商品？如何认知你？我们了解你，你以前来过这里，我们知道你喜欢什么，你在哪里工作，你做什么，你的体型，你的风格，什么最适合你，所以这些认知对零售商会非常有帮助。我认为从长远来看，这将改变游戏规则。

Yael Cosset, Kroger’s chief information officer: The biggest transformation related to AI is going to first be around our associate — not to replace the work that our associates do, but quite the opposite, which is to augment and amplify what they do. How do I help our associates in our stores engage with our customers by simplifying some of their activities and giving them more time to interact? If they’re in the cheese department, the cheesemonger could have a better experience with our customers to help answer a question or answer a pairing question with wine or bread. That’s going to be the low-hanging fruit for us.

克罗格首席信息官耶尔?科塞特(Yael Cosset) : 与人工智能相关的最大转变首先将围绕我们的同事展开，AI不是取代我们的同事现在所做的工作，反而扩大他们所做的工作范围和权限。我们如何简化同事的部分工作，让他们有更多的时间与客户互动？如果我们的同事正在奶酪区，员工就能更好地为顾客服务，帮助他们解答顾客的问题，或解奶酪与葡萄酒或面包搭配的问题，给顾客带来更好的体验。这将是我们易于实现的目标。

Ulta’s Kimbell: AI more broadly has been a big focus for us for a while in personalizing our guests’ connection with us. The power of our data and the ability to unleash that in ways that makes the communication we have with our guests more meaningful and more relevant and more timely, we think is really exciting. We’ve made progress in that, but we see a lot ahead of us as we personalize our experience, with the ultimate goal of getting to true one-to-one personalization.

Ulta 的 Kimbell: 人工智能在更广泛的层面上，已经成为我们一段时间以来的一个重点，它使顾客与我们的联系更加个性化。数据的力量以及释放数据的能力使得我们与客人的交流更有意义，更相关，更及时，这真的很令人兴奋。我们已经在这方面取得了进步，但是在我们个性体验时，我们看到了很多未来，我们的最终目标是实现真正的一对一个性化。

Ulta CEO Dave Kimbell./Ulta 首席执行官 Dave Kimbell。Arturo Holmes | WWD | Getty Images

Under Armour’s Trent: When you’re thinking about malls, and this is a real-life experience, one of the things that brands are going to have to figure out as they think about all these digitally connected tools is the internet. It’s actually quite hard to get the fast ... speed internet in some of these big-box locations to enable. That’s been one of the biggest pain points we’ve faced over here in terms of just bandwidth and WiFi speed in terms of being able to enable a smart fitting room, an RFID, a remote POS-type system. So I do think that’s one of the things for the long haul that real estate development teams are going to have to figure out.

Armour’s Trent: 当你想到购物中心时，这是一个真实的生活体验，当品牌想到所有这些数字连接工具时，他们必须弄清楚的事情之一就是互联网。实际上，在这些大型场所，很难获得网速很高的互联网。这是我们现在面临的最大的痛点之一，就带宽和 WiFi 网速而言，就能决定能否启用一个智能试衣间，一个 RFID，一个远程 POS 类型的系统。所以我确实认为这是商业地产开发团队长期需要解决的问题之一。

Five years from now, where will the consumer do the majority of their shopping – online or in stores?

Ulta’s Kimbell: In beauty and at Ulta Beauty, we see the majority of transactions in store as they are today and we think that’ll be the case over the next five years.

Ulta’s Kimbell: 在美容业和 Ulta Beauty，我们看到大部分的交易都和现在一样，我们认为未来五年都会是这样。

Kroger’s Cosset: In five years, stores will continue to account for the majority of sales, because even for a significant portion of what we sell digitally, it will be fulfilled in the stores.

Kroger’s Cosset: 在五年内，商店将继续占据销售的大部分，因为即使我们销售的很大一部分是数字化的，它也将在商店中实现。

Figs’ Spear: I don’t think it’s one or the other. I think the more three dimensional and the more you can have both digital and offline, the more powerful it becomes. I do think the younger generation, they’re kind of coming back out in the world, and you’ve seen offline grow a lot. I think there’s more to come on that.

Figs’ Spear: 我不认为这是其中之一。我认为，三维空间越多，数字化和离线的能力越强，它就变得越强大。我确实认为年轻一代，他们又回到了这个世界，你也看到了线下的成长。我觉得还有更多。

Abercrombie’s Horowitz: Stores matter. You need a store. I’ve watched a lot of pure plays over the years and they end up opening up stores because you need a store, you need that hub for the return, the exchange, the pickup, whatever it might be that they’re using that hub for. So there were years of the apocalypse of the mall and how stores were ending. I don’t believe any of that. Stores matter. I say it all the time, and I firmly believe they matter. It’s just a balance. It’s a balance between the channels and what works for the consumer depending upon what their lifestyle is and age.

Abercrombie’s Horowitz: 商店很重要。你需要一家商店。这些年来，我看了很多纯粹的线上玩家，他们最终开设了商店，因为你需要一个商店，你需要那个中心的退货，交换，提货，无论它是什么，他们正在使用这个中心。多年来的经常有人会讲实体商场和商店是会消失，我一点都不相信。实体商店很重要。我一直这么说，而且我坚信它们很重要。线上线下是基于消费者的生活方式和年龄的一种渠道之间的平衡。

Jens Grede attends as Swarovski celebrates Skims collaboration and unveils its flagship store in New York City, Nov. 7, 2023.

2023年11月7日，Jens Grede 出席施华洛世奇庆祝 Skims 合作并揭幕其在纽约的旗舰店。

Dia Dipasupil | Getty Images

Skims’ Grede: The majority of shopping is going to still happen in store, but the vast majority of intent or the decision to shop will start online. Young customers today always know what they want to buy when they shop in stores, so the transaction happens in the store, but the customer journey starts online, and I think that will go for everybody in the coming five years.

Skims’ Grede:大部分的购物仍将发生在石头商店，但绝大多数的意图或决定购物都开始在网上。今天的年轻顾客在商店购物时总是知道他们想买什么，所以交易发生在商店里，但是顾客的旅程开始于网上，我认为在未来的五年里，每个人都会有这样的经历。

Ex-Walmart exec Lore: The younger generation has a higher percentage of online shopping. As the older generation ages out and there’s more of the younger generation, by definition, you’re going to see a higher percentage of shopping being done online.

前沃尔玛高管Lore: 年轻一代在网上购物的比例更高。随着老一代人逐渐老去，年轻一代人越来越多，按照定义，你将看到更高比例的网上购物。

Neiman’s van Raemdonck: It’s not going to be one or the other, and I really believe in this notion of integrated retail — that customers will continue to shop differently depending on the day of the week, their mood and what they’re looking for. I do believe that, especially in luxury, the connectivity to a human and someone who knows you and someone who’s got your best interest, that’s going to be the main way customers who are truly involved in luxury will want to shop and, that will be still very much in stores. But I think it’ll be complemented by remote selling.

Neiman’s van Raemdonck: 这不会是一个或另一个，我真的相信这种整合零售的概念，消费者会继续根据一周中的哪一天、他们的心情和他们想要什么来选择不同的购物方式。我确实相信，尤其是在奢侈品行业，与一个人、一个了解你的人以及一个对你最感兴趣的人之间的联系，将会成为真正参与奢侈品行业的消费者购物的主要方式，而且这种方式在商店中仍然非常普遍。但我认为线上销售会对此起到补充作用。

In five years, which retailers and brands will be the most influential and dominant players? Which are most at risk of not existing?

Skims’ Grede: It’s hard to disregard the strength of the business models of Temu and Shein. They have a supply chain model that is impossible to replicate for a U.S. or European retailer, so it gives them a structural advantage. It’s hard to see that fall away, but that’s on the real mass end. Generally I think every brand in the mid-price segment is going to hurt. The market’s polarizing between luxury or premium or value, and I think general retailers at the mid-price are going to face extinction. If you would say Nike’s mid-price then I really believe in Nike, I believe in Lulu, I believe in Alo [Yoga], I believe in Skims, I believe in Inditex, I believe in all retailers that either offer great value for money or at a great price, or just simply the lowest possible price. All retailers in the mid-price segment, I would be nervous if I were them. I would predict that we’re gonna have a really high turnover of brands in mass retail over the next five years. I think it’ll look unrecognizable to today.

Skims’Grede: 很难忽视 Temu 和 Shein 的商业模式的力量。它们的供应链模式不可能被美国或欧洲的零售商复制，因此它们具有结构性优势。很难看到它消失，但那是在真正的客户端。一般来说，我认为每个中等价位的品牌都会受到伤害。市场在奢侈品、高档品和价值之间的两极分化，我认为中档零售商将面临灭顶之灾。如果你说耐克的中档价格，那么我真的相信耐克，我相信Lulu，我相信Yoga(瑜伽) ，我相信 Skims，我相信 Inditex，我相信所有的零售商，要么提供物有所值的价格，要么只是最低的价格。所有的中等价位的零售商，如果我是他们，我会感到紧张。我可以预测，在未来的五年里，大众市场的品牌会大洗牌，相对今天会面目全非。

Ex-Gap and J. Crew boss Drexler: TJX Companies. Look at the growth. Look at the volume. Look at the earnings. Zara. Their goods are right on, style-wise. They get it with trends. They’re worldwide, a zillion stores, and their operations and execution, aside from their merchandising, I think they’re always on top of the game. The other name I’ll mention is LVMH. What they have done is extraordinary. Every single one of their businesses speaks to quality and integrity.

前 Gap 和 J.Crew 的老板 Drexler: TJX 公司。看看这个增长，看看销量，看看收入。不得不说Zara.他们的产品在款式上都是正确的。他们跟着潮流走。遍布世界各地，数不清的商店。他们的经营和执行，他们除了很强的商品能力，我认为他们总是在游戏的顶端。我要提到的另一个名字是 LVMH。他们的所作所为非同寻常。他们的每一项业务都体现了质量和诚信。

Abercrombie’s Horowitz: Very specific category stores will have a harder time existing. The companies that cater to a lifestyle and have a balanced assortment are the ones who will continue to thrive. If everyone was dressing very casually and you were completely a dress-up brand, you’re in a bit of trouble. Having a balanced lifestyle brand is the way to be, and I’ve seen a lot of athletic brands evolving into lifestyle brands, I mean that’s a huge trend that’s happening out there, and my take on that is, you can’t be too narrow.

阿伯克龙比的霍洛维茨: 非常具体的类别商店将有一个更困难的时间存在。那些迎合生活方式、品种均衡的公司将继续蓬勃发展。如果每个人都穿得很随意，而你完全是一个盛装品牌，你就有点麻烦了。拥有一个平衡的生活方式品牌是必须的，我见过很多运动品牌演变成生活方式品牌，我的意思是，这是一个巨大的趋势正在发生，我的看法是，你不能太狭隘。

Under Armour’s Trent: Luxury is a very specific space that adds a ton of value for very different lenses for the consumer. You look at what Dior or Louis Vuitton or Hermes do for a consumer — that space remains quite niche and specific. So I think they stay, and I think they continue to exist and thrive in the space they’re thriving in.

在盔甲的特伦特: 奢侈品是一个十分特定的空间，它为消费者带来了多种不同的价值。像迪奥（Dior）、路易威登（Louis Vuitton）或爱马仕（Hermes）为消费者带来的价值只是在这个非常小众和特定空间。因此，我认为这些品牌会留下来，并继续在这个空间内存在并发展壮大。

Kara Trent, Under Armour president of Americas.Under Armour

Levi’s Gass: I think the ones that will thrive are the ones that stay true to who they are in their heritage but also embrace where the consumer is going and embrace these new tools that will help them personalize and shape their experience with the consumer.

Levi’s Gass: 我认为那些能够蓬勃发展的是那些在传统中忠实于自己的品牌，同时也拥抱消费者的方向，拥抱这些新工具，这些工具将帮助他们个性化，塑造他们与消费者的体验。

Ulta’s Kimbell: It’s really pretty clear — making sure you’re meeting the ever elevating expectations of consumers, as they get more savvy, as they bring new expectations. Their willingness to tolerate less than ideal experiences, whether it’s in store or online, is less and less. The options are increasing, the expectations are elevating, so it comes back to delivering great human connection certainly in store, but also online.

Ulta’s Kimbell: 这一点十分明确，你需要满足消费者日益提高的期望，因为他们越来越精明，带来了更高的期望。无论是实体店还是线上，他们对低于理想体验的容忍度都在逐渐降低。选择越来越多，期望越来越高，因此，无论是在实体店还是线上，都需要建立出色的人际链接。

What’s one thing that will become a retail standard that isn’t one today?

Under Armour’s Trent: Customer service. I mean, I think it’s a lost art, if I’m to be honest. I think if someone’s making an attempt and an effort to walk across your lease line, I think creating relationships with your customer in person becomes one of the intangibles that I think we forget in retail sometimes.

Under Armour’s Trent：顾客服务。说实话，我觉得这是一门失传的艺术。我认为，如果有人试图并努力想进入你的门店，你与客户建立的这种面对面关系，就会成为企业的一种无形资产，现在的零售也有时忽视了这种无形资产。

Levi’s Gass: While we today do use traditional cash registers, fast forward five years from now, I don’t think you’ll see those in our stores, right? That’s important merchandising space. ... The transactional part of shopping will become just so easy. Even today, with as much technology, there’s a lot of friction once you’re actually going to buy an item, right? Waiting in line, the process, etc. I think the winners five years from now, that just goes away, and so the time spent in the store is all around the discovery, the inspiration, and far less about the transaction.

Levi’s Gass:  虽然我们今天还在使用传统的收银机，但五年后，我想你们就不会在我们的店里看到它们了，对吧？这是重要的商品空间……购物交易的部分会变得非常简单。即使在今天，有了这么多的技术，当你真正要购买商品时，还是有很多摩擦，对吧？排队等待、流程等等。我认为五年后的赢家，就是那些消除这些摩擦的商家，所以，顾客在店里花费的时间都围绕发现、灵感，而几乎与交易无关。

Skims’ Grede: Inclusive sizing is becoming a retail standard. When my wife [Emma Grede] and Khloe [Kardashian] started Good American, they were really one of the first brands to offer the full size range, from extra small to three or four X, and in the department store, refusing to split the product range between departments. So since then, over the last five, six, seven years, it is becoming more and more commonplace. I mean, when Kim [Kardashian] and I started Skims we couldn’t have dreamt of not doing it. And I think it’d be very hard to launch a brand today that isn’t inclusive in sizing. And I believe in five years, it’s going to become the absolute standard. I think that’s a no-brainer.

Skims’ Grede: 包容性的尺码已经成为零售业的标准。当我妻子（Emma Grede）和科勒（Khloe Kardashian）创立Good American时，他们真的是最早提供全尺码范围的品牌之一，从特小号到三四个X号，而且在百货公司里，他们拒绝将产品线分割到不同部门。所以，从那时起，在过去的五、六、七年里，这种做法变得越来越普遍。我的意思是，当金（Kim Kardashian）和我创立Skims时，我们根本无法想象不这样做。我认为，如今推出一个不包容尺码的品牌会非常困难。我相信，五年后，包容性尺码将成为绝对的标准。我认为这是不言而喻的。

Walmart’s Ward: Customers will expect a level of personalization. Customers will expect that if they spend a lot of time with a retailer like Walmart, that we get to understand you and we get to know you, and we don’t treat you like a stranger every time you come back to us. ... If we know you’ve got a pet dog, and you buy dog food from us every single week, we should probably show you great deals on pet beds or leashes or dog outfits, and start to show up in a way that helps you feel like we understand your needs and we can serve you really well.

沃尔玛的沃德: 顾客会期待一定程度的个性化服务。顾客会期待，如果他们在沃尔玛这样的零售店里花费大量时间，我们就能够理解他们、认识他们，而且我们不会在他们每次回来时都像对待陌生人一样对待他们。……如果我们知道你养了一只宠物狗，并且你每周都从我们这里购买狗粮，那么我们可能应该向你展示宠物床、狗链或狗服装的优惠信息，并以一种方式出现，让你觉得我们了解你的需求，并能很好地为你服务。

Geoffroy van Raemdonck Patrick Mckleod | WWD | Penske Media | Getty Images

Neiman’s van Raemdonck: Shopping will not look like shopping. Shopping will feel like an experience that could happen in your home or in the most beautiful space, where the product has a key role, but where everything else around the product, from service and experience, will be at the center. I would imagine a store that actually doesn’t have a lot of visible products, doesn’t have a cash register, but is really an incredible room where you go and you have a moment for yourself, where products are presented to you, where you have the time to step out of the room, have a drink at the bar, come back. I think it’s going to be a real experience where all the artifacts of retail will not be there, so you won’t see product racks, you won’t see sales associates positioned behind a counter and a cash register. I think you’re going to see an interaction with someone in a setting that doesn’t look like retail, but looks like a fantastic experience. Much more akin to: I’m going to a friend’s house and it’s intimate and it’s a dinner with people I love.

Neiman’s van Raemdonck: 购物将不再像购物。购物将是一种可以在家里或最美丽的空间里发生的体验，产品在其中扮演着关键角色，但围绕产品的所有其他事物，从服务和体验到环境，都将处于中心位置。我可以想象一个实际上并没有很多可见产品的商店，没有收银机，但真的是一个令人难以置信的房间，你可以去那里享受属于自己的时刻，在那里向你展示产品，在那里你有时间走出房间，在酒吧喝杯酒，然后再回来。我认为这将是一次真正的体验，其中所有的零售文物都将不复存在，所以你不会看到产品货架，你不会看到销售人员站在柜台和收银机后面。我认为你将在一个看起来不像零售，但看起来像是一次美妙体验的环境中与某人互动。这更像是我去朋友家，那里很亲密，是和我喜欢的人共进晚餐。

Figs’ Spear: Customization will become the new standard. It will apply to everything in retail, right? It will apply to adding a patch or adding a specific detail to your jacket or your scrubs. In other spaces having initials on your headphones, having your fit exactly what it needs to be, not just with apparel, but with kind of everything across the landscape of retail. There’ll be less people, but the people will be more impactful. So they’re not answering questions or helping you with things that the technology has already helped you with.

Figs’ Spear: 定制将成为新的标准。它将适用于零售业的所有领域，对吧？它将适用于在你的夹克或工作服上添加补丁或特定的细节。在其他空间，你的耳机上有首字母缩写，你的耳机完全符合你的需求，不仅仅是在服装上，而是在整个零售领域的所有方面。人员将减少，但他们的影响力会更大。因此，他们不再回答技术问题或帮助你处理技术问题，因为技术已经帮助你处理了这些问题。

Abercrombie’s Horowitz: Just in time inventory ... there’s lots of ways you can think about it, whether that’s a digital front, whether that’s drop shipping to a consumer, right? Going directly from a factory to a drop ship, superseding the distribution centers, there’s lots of different ways to think about it.

阿伯克龙比的霍洛维茨: 即时库存模式...你可以尽情的发挥你的想像，无论是一数字化的用户端，还是直接投送给消费者，从工厂直接发货到客户，取代配送中心，有很多不同的模式可以去想象。

Nicholas of Sam’s Club: Another retail standard that is really going to be important beyond the customer is energy. Having sustainable, regenerative sources of energy — that is solar, it is wind, it is buying into community solar, it is electric vehicles — all of these things are going to be really important for sustainable operations into the future. And if you’re not thinking about it now, you really ought to be on top of that.

山姆俱乐部的尼古拉斯: 除了顾客之外，另一个对零售业来说非常重要的标准就是能源。拥有可持续、可再生的能源资源——即太阳能、风能、社区太阳能、电动汽车等——所有这些都将对未来的可持续运营非常重要。如果你现在还没有考虑到这一点，那么你真的应该尽快关注这个问题。

Chris Nicholas, President and CEO of Sam’s Club.克里斯 · 尼古拉斯，山姆俱乐部的总裁兼首席执行官。

Walmart沃尔玛

Ulta’s Kimbell: The role of retailers’ apps. All of us have them, of course, and they play a role today, but I just see a growing opportunity and a trend of the app as a centralized hub. ... In this growing need to personalize experiences, to create human connections, we see apps or some variation of that as a place to deliver great guest experience, to educate, to deliver brand communication, to be a destination around things like loyalty or promotions or help with in-store navigation.

Ulta’s Kimbell: 零售APP的作用。我们当然都有APP，它们在今天也起着作用，但我们往往仅看到了APP作为集中中心带来的不断增长的机会和趋势。在日益需要个性化体验、建立人际联系的今天，我们看到APP或其某种变体将为顾客提供卓越客户体验、进行教育、传播品牌；它还将是提升顾客忠诚度或促销的工具；也可以为顾客提供店内导航帮助。

——杨德宏博士推荐阅读的文章